China's industrial computer industry is in a period of superposition of opportunities with the release of industrial transformation and upgrading needs, policy dividends highlighted, and capital market boosting, and the industrial computer industry has nurtured major investment opportunities. Under the strategic guidance of "Made in China 2025" and "Industry 4.0", the phenomenon of "machine substitution" in factories will become more frequent, and my country's industrial computer market will be further opened.
Prospective Industry Research Institute's "2016-2021 China Industrial Computer Industry Production and Sales Demand Forecast and Transformation and Upgrade Analysis Report" pointed out that my country has now become the world's largest industrial computer consumer market. Data shows that in 2014, my country sold a total of 57,000 industrial computers. , about a quarter of global sales. Among them, more than half of the industrial computer market is occupied by foreign brands, while the sales volume of local industrial computer brands is only 16,000 units.
A indústria de robôs é uma parte importante da indústria de equipamentos de fabricação inteligente. O desenvolvimento da indústria de robôs pode não apenas promover a melhoria do nível de automação de várias indústrias industriais, mas também produzir um bom efeito de transbordamento de tecnologia e impulsionar a transformação e atualização de toda a indústria industrial.
I. Visão Geral do Desenvolvimento da Indústria
At present, all countries are taking the robot industry as a key RD and industrialization field occupying the commanding heights of technology and market. The "Advanced Manufacturing Partnership Program" implemented by the United States requires that the U.S. manufacturing industry should be restructured through the development of industrial computers, and a new generation of intelligent robots based on mobile Internet should be developed. my country has incorporated the robot industry into the key areas of strategic emerging industry development, and proposed to vigorously promote the research and development and industrialization of automatic control systems, industrial computers, key components and other devices. Major industrial provinces in China are striving to seize the opportunity in the robotics industry. Coastal provinces and cities have made key investments and industrial layouts in robotics technology and industrial fields, and have initially formed regional characteristic industries. Liaoning Province is building a special robot industry base in Shenfu New City; Zhejiang Province has launched the "machine substitution" project; Guangdong Province focuses on the development of multi-purpose robots; Jiangsu, Shanghai and other places also focus on the development of the robot industry as a strategic emerging industry. The next 5-10 years will be the golden decade for the development of China's robot industry.
2. Escala da indústria e tendência de desenvolvimento
Mercado internacional: Em 2013, as vendas globais de robôs aumentaram 12% para 1.781.132 unidades, das quais cerca de 70% foram vendidas para Japão, China, Estados Unidos, Coreia do Sul e Alemanha. As vendas de computadores industriais nas indústrias automotiva, química, plástica e alimentícia continuaram aumentando, assim como a instalação de robôs na indústria eletroeletrônica. Durante o período 2008-2013, a taxa média de crescimento anual das instalações de robôs foi de cerca de 9,5%. O desenvolvimento da indústria automobilística e das indústrias eletroeletrônicas é o principal fator por trás do forte crescimento na instalação de computadores industriais. Além disso, a demanda por processamento de metal, plásticos químicos e outras indústrias também está aumentando rapidamente.
Domestic market: my country's industrial computer market demand has surged since 2010. In 2013, China became the world's largest robot market, accounting for 20 percent of the world's total. The sales volume of robots was 36,560 units. By 2014, the sales volume had reached 56,000 units. From 2008 to 2014, the average annual growth rate of China's industrial computer installations was 36 percent . my country's industrial computer market is mainly concentrated in automobiles, auto parts, home appliances, construction machinery, petrochemical and other industries, among which the manufacture of automobiles and parts has always been the most important application field of industrial computers.
3. Características básicas de risco da indústria
Risco de flutuação macroeconômica: A indústria de computadores industriais tem certas características cíclicas e está altamente correlacionada com a macroeconomia e o investimento em ativos fixos. As empresas de produção de automóveis e peças, eletrodomésticos, ferragens, indústria de portas e outras indústrias são os principais clientes a jusante da indústria. Quando a macroeconomia está em desaceleração, a demanda downstream diminuirá, o que afetará seu entusiasmo pela nova construção, reconstrução e expansão de linhas de produção automatizadas. Por sua vez, terá um certo grau de impacto negativo na produção e operação das empresas deste setor.
Risco de concorrência de mercado: atualmente, a indústria nacional de computadores industriais é dominada por pequenas e médias-empresas e ainda não formou uma marca dominante. O mercado de ponta-é ocupado pelos gigantes da expansão na Europa, América e Japão com certa vantagem de escala e alto nível técnico. Não há muitas empresas nacionais capazes de realizar projetos de grande-escala e fornecer aos clientes soluções gerais de automação. A indústria nacional como um todo está em fase de desenvolvimento e enfrenta certos riscos de concorrência de preços viciosa.
Risco de fuga de cérebros: o desenvolvimento de indústrias de computadores industriais e automação industrial requer profissionais abrangentes de alta-qualidade, altamente-qualificados e multidisciplinares- que dominem software de controle de sistema avançado, máquinas de equipamentos, integração de engenharia de sistemas de automação industrial e outros campos. Ao mesmo tempo, ao fornecer aos clientes do setor soluções gerais para linhas de automação, eles também precisam de talentos de marketing que possam entender com precisão as necessidades do cliente, processos de produção e características e desempenho do produto, e que tenham uma rica experiência em gerenciamento de projetos e no setor. Os tipos de talentos-mencionados acima exigem anos de experiência no setor e o número de talentos é limitado. No futuro, com o desenvolvimento da indústria, a competição por talentos se tornará cada vez mais acirrada e o risco de fuga de cérebros aumentará ainda mais.
4. Oportunidades de Desenvolvimento da Indústria
In 2014, the average salary of employees in my country's manufacturing industry was 51,369 yuan, an average annual growth rate of about 14 percent compared with 15,934 yuan in 2005. Cheap labor has gradually become "expensive", coupled with rising land costs and other manufacturing costs, the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is imperative, and the introduction of industrial computers to replace labor has been proven by various countries as a feasible path. At present, the use density of industrial computer in my country is still far below the global average level, and there is a big gap between Japan, South Korea, Germany and other developed countries. South Korea has a higher density of industrial computers in the world, with 347 robots per 10,000 workers; Japan is second with 339; Germany ranks third with 251; China has only 21, which is lower than the international average of 55. half of the table.
At present, the proportion of industrial computer applications in my country is 6 percent , Japan 33 percent , the United States 16 percent , and Germany 14 percent . China is a major manufacturing country in the world. In 2014, the number of workers in China's manufacturing industry was about 50 million. It is roughly estimated that industries that can replace humans with a large number of robots, such as automotive, electrical and electronic, chemical and food industries, have as many as 30 million workers. If the average robot density in these industries reaches 100 units per 10,000 people as planned around 2020, about 300,000 robots will be needed, plus the automation equipment equipped with robots, the space will be around 300 billion.
"Made in China 2025" proposes to "actively research and develop around the application needs of industrial computers, special robots such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, dangerous goods manufacturing, defense and military industry, chemical industry, and light industry, as well as medical and health care, family services, education and entertainment and other service robots. New products, promote the standardization and modular development of robots, and expand market applications."
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Industrial Computer Industry" further detailed the specific strategic goals: "By 2020, a relatively complete industrial computer system will be formed, and 3-5 internationally competitive leading enterprises and 8- 10 supporting industrial clusters; the technological innovation capability and international competitiveness of the industrial computer industry and enterprises have been significantly enhanced, the market share of high-end products has increased to more than 45 percent , and the robot density (the number of robots used per 10,000 employees) has reached more than 100, basically satisfying National defense construction, national economy and social development needs". Whether it is from top-level design or specific industrial planning, the robotics industry has received great attention and support, with clear development goals and paths, and broad prospects for development.
Benefiting from the huge market space of domestic robots and the stimulation of continuous favorable policies, the industrial computer sector of the capital market has been listed, listed, and the trend of mergers and acquisitions is surging, and the integration of capital, technology and the market is accelerating. The above integration presents the following characteristics: First, listed companies actively participate in overseas mergers and acquisitions, absorb foreign high-quality core technologies, and accelerate the deployment of core components and high-end robot markets. The PE level of pure robot enterprises in my country's capital market has been maintained at 40-50 times for a long time, which is higher than the industry average level of 20-30 times abroad, providing a rich source of funds for the acquirer.
Some listed companies take advantage of capital to speed up their layout and start competing for some core components and high-end robot markets. Second, some high-quality small and medium-sized enterprises take advantage of the development opportunities of the New Third Board to list for financing, and accelerate their layout and differentiated development in some sub-industry markets. There are hundreds of industrial computer companies in my country targeting different industry segments. These robot companies are usually system integrators that have grown up relying on project experience in a segment. These companies are subject to cost, pricing and other aspects. Disadvantages, often faced with the situation of lack of funds and insufficient production capacity, and with the construction of my country's multi-level capital market, the new third board market provides a suitable financing and rapid development path for such enterprises. High-quality small and medium-sized industrial computer enterprises in various sub-sectors have emerged.
To sum up, in the next 3-5 years, China's industrial computer industry will be in a period of superposition of opportunities due to the release of industrial transformation and upgrading needs, policy dividends, and capital market boosting, and the industrial computer industry will nurture major investment opportunities.
